Romney Leads GOP With Giuliani Moving Into Second Clinton Jumps To Lead In The Democratic Race
Released on: September 27, 2007, 8:24 am
Press Release Author: Laura Ward/ Strategic Vision
Press Release Summary: Iowa polling results for the 2008 Presidental Election
Press Release Body: Atlanta, GA/September 27, 2007 - Strategic Vision, LLC, a public relations and public affairs agency, announced the results of a three-day poll in Iowa of 600 likely Republican caucus goers and 600 likely Democratic caucus goers on the 2008 Presidential Election. The poll has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points for each Party's presidential preference.
When Republicans were polled on whom they would support in 2008 for the Republican Presidential nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney led with 30%; followed by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 17%; former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson with 13%; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 8%; Arizona Senator Jon McCain 6%; former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 5%; Texas Congressman Ron Paul 3%; Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo 2%; Kansas Senator Sam Brownback 2%; California Congressman Duncan Hunter 1%; and 13% undecided.
"Romney continues to lead in the state and has in our polling since June largely due to his heavy personal campaigning and advertising in the state which has gone largely unchallenged by the other candidates," said Johnson. "The surprise is that Giuliani has now moved into a clear second place showing having fallen behind Fred Thompson in our last two polls. While Giuliani has regained support, Thompson lost ground since entering the race. Romney leads among social conservatives and older voters while Giuliani does better among younger professional voters."
"For McCain, this poll continues what has been a downward spiral for his campaign," continued Johnson. "This is the lowest McCain has polled since we began our Iowa polling. Despite hopes that his campaign has been expressing of replicating John Kerry's comeback in 2004, it is hard to see McCain regaining his footing. It is hard to see how McCain can survive if he does not finish in the top three in Iowa. Huckabee is showing momentum in the last months and could possibly overtake Thompson which if that happened could change the dynamics of the entire race."
When Republicans were asked if they viewed President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan, 7% said yes; 75% said no; and 18% were undecided.
"The fact that such a large number of Republican voters do not view the President as a conservative in the Reagan mode, demonstrates the overall problem for the Republican Presidential candidates," said Johnson. "How do you run as a Ronald Reagan conservative in a Party that is dissatisfied with the incumbent without offending the incumbent, or at some point does the President's poll numbers become so low that he is no longer relevant?"
When Republicans were asked how important it was for their presidential candidate to be conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan, 47% said very important; 20% said somewhat important; 6% said not very important; 15% said not important; and 12% were undecided.
"For Republicans, the key is to be Reaganesque while at the same time defining themselves with their own imprint," said Johnson.
When Republicans were asked if they favored a withdrawal from Iraq in the next six months, 53% said yes; 37% said no; and 10% were undecided.
On the Democratic side, New York Senator Hillary Clinton led with 24%; former North Senator John Edwards received 22%; Illinois Senator Illinois Senator Barack Obama received 21%; New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson received 13%; Delaware Senator Joseph Biden received 4%; Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd received 1%; Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich 1%; and 14% were undecided.
"This is the first time since we began polling in Iowa that Clinton has led," said Johnson. "At this point she has the momentum in this state. For Edwards these numbers are disastrous as there is no way possible that he can survive without winning Iowa. This race remains volatile."
When Democrats were asked if they favored a withdrawal from Iraq in the next six months, 84% said yes; 7% said no; and 9% were undecided.
"This question poses a problem for Democratic candidates," said Johnson. "While they must appeal to the dominant anti-war crowd, at the same time they cannot take too extreme of a position that will alienate moderate voters in the General Election and if the surge appears to be working they cannot appear to be advocating defeat when victory may be nearing."
When Democratic voters were asked what they most looked for in a presidential candidate, charisma, experience, or ideology, 30% selected ideology; 30% selected experience; 27% selected charisma; and 13% were undecided.
"With more Democrats looking for experience this must be good news for Clinton as she is the candidate of experience and Edwards and Obama are the candidates of charisma," said Johnson.
Strategic Vision, LLC is an Atlanta-headquartered public relations and public affairs agency. Results are based on telephone interviews in Iowa with 600 likely Republican caucus voters and 600 likely Democratic caucus voters, aged 18+, and conducted September 21-23, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points for each Party. Additional information on Strategic Vision, LLC may be obtained at www.strategicvision.biz.
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