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Business Monitor International Releases the Latest Analysis of Japan's Post-Crisis Economy
Released on: August 11, 2011, 8:57 am
Author: Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) has released its latest
special report, "Japan After The Quake: Resurgence Or Another Lost
Decade?" examining the state of Japan's economy and exploring the
risks and potential areas of outperformance across six industries
covering retail, agribusiness, IT, automotives, commercial banking and
The report outlines BMI’s views on Japan's recovery and the future prospects of the Japanese economy, focusing on the longer-term
implications of the disaster.
While it has been encouraging how quickly the economic downturn has stabilised,
Japanese consumers are unlikely to start spending again soon. BMI expects that the
Japanese consumer to place a greater emphasis on price over quality. The
reconstruction efforts will divert capital resources away from other sectors of the
economy, and a slowdown in China will impact the export sector.
Further, the March earthquake and tsunami has had a major impact on Japan's ICT and retail industries, with the ICT sector struggling especially to resume full
operations on the back of supply chain disruptions and power shortages. Faced with a
precarious domestic outlook, ICT firms will, instead, turn to growing emerging
market demand to boost their revenues, a strategy that is also being pursued by the
Japan autos sector with
That said, other sectors are better poised to capitalise on the "back-to-basics"
spending of consumers with major convenience store retailers outperforming in this
challenging environment. While March's retail sales growth fell to its worst level
since 1998, retail sales in recent months have bounced back, underlining a
recovering demand outlook for Japanese retailers.
More broadly, the longer-term economic outlook remains fraught with risk, with Japan
staring at another lost decade of economic stagnation. Indeed, BMI predicts that
consensus expectations for Japan's GDP growth of 2.9% in 2012 are too optimistic.
BMI's portfolio of products provides comprehensive analysis across Japan's
industries and enables global investors,
strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to assess and evaluate
how far Japan has come since the crisis in terms of economic stabilisation and
About Business Monitor International:
Business Monitor International (BMI) established in 1984 with headquarters in London
is recognised as a leading independent source for analysis and forecasts on Country
Risk and Industry, spanning 175 countries. BMI provides research to multinational
corporations, banks, funds, research centres and governments in 140 countries around
the world, including more than 400 of the Fortune Global 500 companies.
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